今日主題：The housing market-- Cool it 房市--該降溫了
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中英文稿：
The housing market-- Cool it
房市--該降溫了
Property prices are rising swiftly. The Bank of England may intervene
房價一路攀登，英格蘭銀行可能插手
BRITAIN'S housing market is like food in a microwave, says Spencer Dale, the chief economist at the Bank of England. It can “turn from lukewarm to scalding hot in a matter of a few economic seconds ”. Since the crisis the bank has gained new tools to control the market's temperature. Now that the heat is rising, it may soon start testing them out.
英格蘭首席經濟學家斯賓塞•戴爾說，英國房市就像微波爐裡的食品,“從經濟角度來看，幾秒之內就能從溫熱到滾燙”。自歐債危機以來，銀行已經學到了一種控制市場溫度的新手段。然而現在隨著市場升溫，這些新手段或許也要開始接受全面考驗。
Until last year house prices were rising predominantly in prosperous central London boroughs. That was largely because of an influx of cash - rich buyers, says Neal Hudson of Savills, an estate agency. People saw posh property in the capital as a shelter from economic turmoil abroad. Elsewhere in Britain, the housing market was torpid. Potential buyers struggled to find mortgages. Falling real wages, economic uncertainty and the memory of plummeting house prices during the crisis curbed Britons' obsession with property.
繁華的倫敦中心市鎮去年房價還在顯著上升。第一太平戴維斯房地產機構的尼爾•哈德遜稱，這種現象主要是土豪紮堆造成的。人們把首都地區豪華時髦的地產看作躲避動蕩的國外經濟的避難所。在英國的其他地區，房市也很萎靡不振。潛在買家為了房屋貸款垂死掙紮。經濟危機期間下降的實際工資、經濟的不確定性以及直線下降的房價遏制了英國人對房產的癡迷。
That changed in 2013. Prices rose by 6.8% in the year to January, according to the Office for National Statistics. They are still increasing fastest in London — up 13.2% compared with last year — but the inflation has spread to outer boroughs. In Brent, an unfashionable part of north - west London, prices have risen 31% in a year, according to a report from Nationwide, a building society. It recorded chunky increases in every part of Britain.
2013年情況有所改變。根據國家統計局數據，直至今年一月，房價已上漲了6.8個百分點。倫敦房價還在以最快速度增長—與去年相比增長了13.2%—但是通貨膨脹已經變得一發不可收拾，甚至影響到了倫敦以外的地方。據全英房屋抵押貸款協會報導顯示，作為倫敦西北部不甚有名的博倫特，其房價一年內就已經上漲了31%。此外，英國各地房價都出現了前所未有的大幅提升。
These higher prices are a problem for first - time buyers, but they are not yet unsustainable. Nationally, house prices remain 16% below their pre - crisis peak, adjusted for inflation. Prices are high relative to wages, but that is not surprising. Successive governments have failed to free enough land for new housing developments, while doggedly preserving green belts. Borrowing costs have fallen over recent decades, in part because of a global glut of savings, making it easier for Britons to sustain large mortgages. Neither factor is likely to reverse any time soon.
對於首次購房者來說，房價更高是一個問題,但是這種價格還可能持續。在全國範圍內,房價仍比危機前為了通貨膨脹做出調整的峰值水準低16%。房價比工資更高,但這並不令人驚訝。歷屆政府都未能給新住宅開髮用地留下足夠空間，而固執地保留綠化帶。最近幾十年借貸成本下降，部分原因是全球儲蓄過剩,使英國人更容易持有大量的抵押貸款。而這兩個因素近期都不可改變。
Even so, the housing market is notoriously prone to bubbles. In January Mark Carney, the bank's governor, warned MPs of the dangers of “ extrapolative expectations ”— people rushing to buy on the assumption that prices will continue to surge. Hints of that are visible. People increasingly think house prices will keep climbing. Even though the government's “ Help to Buy ” schemes, which subsidise higher - risk mortgages, are probably having only a moderate direct impact, publicity surrounding them has fed a broader conviction that prices can only go up.
即使如此，房地產市場還是容易出現泡沫。1月, 央行行長馬克•卡尼警告國會議員關於“外推預測”的危險——人們爭相把錢投向“房價會持續上漲”這樣一個預設（當然這種預設也並非沒有可能實現）。人們越來越覺得房價會持續上漲。即使這樣，政府提出的平息高風險抵押貸款的“幫助購房”政策也可能只能帶來些微影響，因為周邊環境和輿論讓人們相信房價還是會持續上升。
Moreover, as borrowers chase higher prices their finances are becoming stretched. At the end of 2013, the average new loan for first - time buyers was 3.4 times the borrower's income — the highest level on record. Barclays, a bank, currently offers mortgages as large as 5.5 times the borrower's income. While interest rates are low, payments on such large loans are manageable. But when rates eventually rise, these borrowers could struggle. A wave of mortgage defaults, accompanied by falling house prices as banks try to sell repossessed houses, could cause yet another British banking crisis.
除此以外，由於借款者紛紛朝著高房價房產努力，他們的經濟情況也越發緊張。2013年底，首次購房者的平均新增貸款是藉款人的收入3.4倍，達到歷史上的最高水準。巴克萊銀行目前提供的抵押貸款是藉款人收入的5.5倍。然而利率低，償還這種大額貸款還是可行的。但是當利率開始穩步上升時，這些借款者就有點心有餘而力不足了。銀行試圖出售回收房，因而房價下跌，如此一來一波又一波的抵押貸款違約很可能會導致另一次英國的銀行業危機。
The Bank of England's new Financial Policy Committee ( FPC ) says it is watching for “ emerging vulnerabilities ” in the market. Formed less than a year ago to confront threats to financial stability, including bubbles, its range of “ macroprudential” tools aim to influence the behaviour of the financial system. Whereas politicians hope rising house prices will cheer voters ahead of next year's general election, the committee can afford to take a longer view. With interest rates expected to remain low for a few more years, it is mulling what to do.
英國央行的新金融政策委員會( FPC )說他們正在坐等市場“即將出現的漏洞”。金融政策委員會成立不到一年，就面臨包括房價泡沫在內的金融不穩定因素的威脅，其職能範圍的“宏觀審慎”工具旨在影響金融行業的一舉一動。而政客們希望上漲的房價可以在明年的大選之前重振選民信心,這樣金融政策委員才會做長遠打算。由於幾年內預計利率仍保持在較低水準, FPC正在考慮該做什麼。
Dabbing the brakes
踩剎車
One approach is stricter vetting of borrowers. From April 26 th banks will have to check that applicants have enough spare cash to cope if the Bank of England raises interest rates as markets expect (to around 3% in 2019). That is still a remarkably low standard. Future interest rates are uncertain; in past decades they have frequently exceeded 5%. The FPC has requested the power to impose tougher interest - rate tests, and will probably have it by the summer. That would allow it to curb the size of new loans, without increasing costs for existing borrowers.
控制局面的一種方法是嚴格審查借款人。從4月26日起，銀行必須檢查申請者是否有足夠的閒錢應對英格蘭銀行利率提高的打算(到2019年的3%左右)。事實上這還是一個較低標準。未來利率是不確定的,在過去的幾十年,他們經常超過5%。金融政策委員會要求實施更嚴厲的利率測試,這個測試可能會在夏天。這項測試不增加現有借款人的成本，也可控制新增貸款數額。
Explore and compare house prices in 13 British regions over time with our interactive house - price tool
用互動式房價工具探索和比較13個英國地區不同時間的房價
An alternative is more vigorous stress tests of mortgage lenders themselves, using stringent scenarios that assume interest rates rise sharply while house prices fall. Forcing lenders to hold buffers large enough to withstand such a shock should deter them from offering the riskiest kinds of mortgage.
除了利率測試，還有一個針對借貸者的壓力測試，這個測試使用嚴格的場景，假設利率大幅上升，房價下跌。強迫接待者承受這樣的衝擊往往讓他們不敢提供風險最高的抵押貸款。
Kevin Daly, an economist at Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, thinks the FPC will enforce tougher affordability tests this year, possibly as soon as June. That would take some heat out of the market. It could also be unpopular. Poorer people would have to save for longer to buy a house. Wealthy home - owners would lose the comfort of swiftly rising prices. And George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, would probably regret the cooling of a pre - election housing boomlet. But the FPC is independent for a reason. It should not fear to act.
投行高盛投資公司的一個經濟學家凱文•戴利認為，金融政策委員會趕在今年6月實施更嚴格的負擔能力測試。這可能會使房產市場降溫，也可能不受歡迎。經濟條件較差的人可能需要花費更長時間為買房存款，富有的房屋所有者也可能因為急速上升的房價頗感不適。英國財政大臣喬治?奧斯本或許會後悔選前冷卻房地產短期繁榮的措施。但金融政策委員獨立也是有原因的，他們可不怕採取行動。
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