今日主題：Criminal cities-- The secret of success 犯罪的城市--成功的秘密
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中英文稿：
Criminal cities-- The secret of success
犯罪的城市--成功的秘密
America's great crime wave is receding from some cities faster than others
美國巨大的犯罪浪潮正在從一些城市以比其他城市更快的速度削減
BETWEEN getting out of his car and starting work in the morning, Bashir Akinyele, a beret-wearing history teacher in Newark, New Jersey, passes the sites of two murders. His school, Weequahic High, once taught Philip Roth, a giant among America's novelists. Its entrance is now blocked by a metal detector; armed cops share the corridors with teenage girls. In the streets nearby almost every intersection has been the site of a shooting. “I've been a teacher for 20 years,” says Mr Akinyele. “And in that time, I've lost 38 students.”
Bashir Akinyele，一個戴著貝雷帽的新凱撒州紐華克市的歷史老師，早上在離開他的車去工作的過程中，經過兩個謀殺案的現場。美國小說巨匠Philip Roth畢業于他教書的學校——Weequahic 高中。這個高中的入口現在被金屬探測器堵住了，武裝好的員警和青少年女孩都在走廊上。在附近的街道上幾乎每一個十字路口都發生過槍擊案。“我做老師已經 20年了”， Akinyele先生說，“在這期間，我失去了38名學生。”
Weequahic is only 30 minutes' drive from Manhattan, but a world apart. In 1991 Newark and New York City had roughly the same murder rate: 32 and 29 per 100,000 respectively. But by last year New York's rate had fallen to four and Newark's had jumped to 40, according to the latest data published on November 14th by the FBI. On a night out in Brooklyn, the main threat is getting caught in a boring conversation with a hipster. In Newark, when darkness fell, your correspondent was ushered back downtown by police.
Weequahic 距離曼哈頓只有三十分鐘的車程，但是卻是兩個世界。在1991年紐華克市和紐約有差不多的謀殺率，分別是3.2%和2.9%。但是根據美國聯邦調查局11 月14號頒佈的最新資料，去年紐約的謀殺率已經降到了0.4%但是紐華克市的謀殺率卻上升到了4%。在布魯克林晚上外出的最大威脅是跟一個潮人進行無聊的 對話。在紐華克市，當夜幕降臨後你的聯絡人會被員警帶回市區。
Over the past 20 years, crime has fallen spectacularly in America and across the rich world. The FBI data suggest it is still falling: violent crime decreased by 4.4% between 2012 and 2013, and murder is now less common than at any time since the end of the 1950s. Criminologists have countless plausible theories to explain this, ranging from less lead-poisoning to the rise of car immobilisers. Yet the difference between cities such as Newark, which remain dangerous, and those like New York, which are safe, suggests a somewhat subtler explanation.
在過去的20年，美國和富有地區的犯罪率明顯降低。美國聯邦調查局的資料顯示犯罪率還在降低：暴力犯罪率在2012到2013年間下降了4.4%，現在的 謀殺率19世紀50年代末以來歷史最低。犯罪學家有無數的貌似可行的理論來解釋這個現象，從更少的鉛中毒到更多的汽車防盜器。現在紐華克市這類仍然很危險 的城市和紐約這種安全的城市之間的差別在一定程度上表明了微妙的解釋。
In Washington, DC the murder rate has dropped from a terrifying 81 per 100,000 in 1991 to a fifth of that now. In Los Angeles gang warfare has largely given way to organic coffee bars, and burglaries and robberies have become rare. Yet cities like Philadelphia and Chicago have experienced more modest improvements. And in places like Baltimore, Newark and Detroit some crime rates have barely fallen.
華盛頓1991年的犯罪率是驚人的8.1%，現在下降到當初的五分之一。在洛杉磯，有組織的咖啡吧很大程度上取代了幫派群架，偷盜行為也變得更稀少了。現 在費城和芝加哥這類城市已經經歷了一個較為溫和的改善。但是巴爾的摩、紐華克市和底特律這樣的城市犯罪率幾乎沒有下降。
One possible explanation is the varying quality of local government. In New York and Los Angeles, reformers such as Rudy Giuliani, who was New York's mayor in the 1990s, and Bill Bratton—chief of police in both cities at different times—forced cops out of their cars, adopted data-driven policing and tried to make public spaces feel safe. They reckoned that residents had to trust the police for crime to fall—which meant purging corruption—and that criminals had to be deprived of convenient places to hang out.
一個可行的解釋是地方政府的品質不同。在紐約和洛杉磯，Rudy Giuliani（1990年擔任紐約的市長）和Bill Bratton（在不同的時間擔任過兩個的城市的警長）這類的改革者命令員警到他們警車以外的地方，採取資料驅動政策並且努力使公共區域感到安全。他們希 望居民相信員警能夠使犯罪率降低，這意味著清除腐敗，以及犯罪者會從方便大家閒逛的地方被清除。
In Newark, by contrast, Sharpe James, the mayor until 2006, was imprisoned in 2008 on fraud charges. His successor, Cory Booker, now a Democratic senator, did much to attract investment into downtown Newark, and managed for a short time to reduce crime and overhaul the police department; but the money ran out, and he later had to cut the force sharply. The present mayor, Ras Baraka, a more traditional rabble-rouser, has hired new cops, but the police force remains troubled (it is, uniquely, monitored by the federal Justice Department). When The Economist visited, the new police director and police chief led officers on a “community walk” around a sketchy neighbourhood. They seemed to spend much of their time telling people how excellent the new mayor is.
相反，在紐華克市，2006年以前的市長Sharpe James，在2008年被指控欺詐而鋃鐺入獄。他的繼任人Cory Booker，現在是民主黨派參議院，做了很多事情吸引對紐華克市中心的投資，並曾經有段時間成功地減少了犯罪、翻修了警局。但是錢被用光了，後來他不得 不大量減少這些措施的力度。現在的市長Ras Baraka是一個更加傳統的暴力煽動者，他雇傭了新的員警，但是警局的武力仍然有問題（的確，是唯一一個被聯邦司法部監管過的警局）。當《經濟學人》採 訪的時候，這個新的警局領導者和警長領著這些人在周圍大致地進行了一次“社區散步”。他們似乎花了很多時間告訴人們這個新市長是多麼地好。
Some think that too much prison breeds nastier criminals: when released, they may be more dangerous than when they went in. In Philadelphia most homicides stem from stupid arguments, often between ex-convicts, says Lieutenant John Stanford of the local police. Newark has 278,000 people yet, each month, 1,400 prisoners are released from the local jail.
一些人認為太多的人被關進監獄滋生了嚴重的犯罪率：被釋放後，他們也許會比進監獄前更加危險。在費城，大多數殺人事件起源於愚蠢的爭吵，通常是發生在有前 科的人之間，地方員警中尉John Stanford說。紐華克市至今有278,000人，每個月有1,400名犯人從地方監獄被釋放。
However, incarceration rates are high throughout America, so this cannot explain the specific ills of its most crime-ridden cities. Nor can poverty: unemployment in New York City is not much lower than it was in the 1990s. Rather, according to John Roman, a researcher at the Urban Institute, a think-tank, crime is like a contagious disease. People who are vulnerable to criminality—poor, badly-educated young men—are far more likely to become criminals when they are surrounded by men much like themselves.
然而，在整個美國入獄率都很高，所以這個說法不能夠解釋大多數被犯罪率困擾的城市的具體問題。貧窮也不能夠解釋這個問題：紐約的失業率自19世紀90年代 以來就沒有降低。相反，據城市學院的調查者、智囊團John Roman所說，犯罪就像是傳染病。人們在犯罪面前是很脆弱的——當貧窮的、沒有受過教育的年輕人聚成團的時候，他們是很容易犯罪的。
Although cities like New York and Los Angeles have plenty of poor people, they are—by American standards—not unusually segregated by race or income. The presence of ambitious new immigrants in deprived neighbourhoods provides an inoculation against crime. In Weequahic, by contrast, deindustrialisation led to depopulation. Whites and many middle-class blacks have fled. Those who remain are mostly poor and desperate. Low property prices provide little incentive for people to clean up blight.
即使像紐約和洛杉磯這樣的城市也有大量的窮人，他們經常被美國的標準——種族或者收入隔離。附近雄心勃勃的新移民的出現有效的遏制了犯罪的發生。相反，在 Weequahic，遏制工業化導致人口減少。白人和中產階級的黑人逃離了，留下來的大都是窮人和絕望的人們。低樓價不能激勵人們打掃這個髒亂的地方。
Even in the most dangerous cities, however, there is hope. Urban populations are now growing across most of the country. In Philadelphia crime rates, though still high, dropped sharply last year. At a police town-hall meeting in the west of the city, people complain about noisy bars, troublesome children and illegal parking. A new charter school and a growing student population are changing the neighbourhood. Shootings are still frighteningly common, admits the local police captain, but milder worries are creeping in.
然而，即使在最危險的城市，希望仍然存在。現在大多數城市市區的人口正在增加。儘管費城的犯罪率還是很高，但是相比去年已經降低了不少。在西部城市的警方 市政會議上，人們抱怨吵鬧的酒吧、煩人的孩子和非法停車。一個新的憲章學校和不斷增加的學生數量正在改變這個地方。地方警局承認，槍擊案仍然驚人地常見， 但是人們的擔心越來越少。
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