字神帝國英語天地

🐥🐵🐯🐸小夥伴們上課啦：今天的主題好有趣哦~~🚼
👑 今日主題：Soccer Goalies Ignore Basic Rule of Probability
足球守門員忽略概率的基本規則

洪欣老師推薦：托福聽力最好的課外教材：60-Second Science
康康精選托福會考的主題，堅持每天精聽一定會進步的哦!!

 建議方法：
1. 先聽兩三遍 (不看文稿)
2. 再一句一句聽寫 (每句都要聽寫數遍，直到寫出85%以上的字)
3. 最後check文稿，看哪聽不出來，單字沒背過，還是發音不熟。
4. 堅持天天聽，就能每天進步哦。

 MP3音檔 (按右鍵可下載聽)：喜歡的同學，幫忙推或按讚哦~~
http://online1.tingclass.net/voaspe/…/20140906sa_science.mp3

 只有音檔怎夠，聽不懂地方，不用怕，康康幫你準備好中英文稿了：

 中英文稿：
Imagine you're a soccer goalie. Your opponent gets ready to take a penalty kick. You're crouched in front of the net. The past three kickers have aimed to your left. So which way do you dive? If you said 「right,」 you'd be in good company. Because when penalty shots repeatedly head in one direction, world-class goalkeepers are more likely to lunge the other way. That's according to a study in the journal Current Biology. [Erman Misirlisoyemail, Patrick Haggard: Asymmetric Predictability and Cognitive Competition in Football Penalty Shoot-Outs]
想像一下你是一個足球守門員，而你的對手準備踢一個點球。你半蹲在門前等待攔球。前面三個被罰球的人都瞄準你的左邊，所以接下來你準備護哪邊?如果你說 「右邊」，那麼你會名好守門員。因為當點球反覆瞄準同一個方向時，世界級的守門員都更可能會撲向另一邊。這是根據發表在《當代生物學》雜誌上的一項研究而 來。

This form of misconception—that a string of rights is bound to be broken by a left—is also common in casinos, so much so that it's called the 「gambler's fallacy.」 At the roulette wheel, for example, bettors tend to back black after seeing a run of reds. 「We're due for a black,」 the thinking goes. But in reality, the roulette ball is still equally likely to land on either color.
這種一連串右邊的形式錯覺必然會被一個左邊打破，這種情況在賭場上也很常見，以至於它被稱為「賭徒謬論」。例如，在輪盤賭中，賭徒在看到一連串的紅色之 後，往往會支持黑色。人們總是會這樣想——「也該是黑色了」。但是在現實中，輪盤賭球對兩種顏色的選擇可能性都差不多相等。

And despite what netminders might think, the same is true for penalty kicks. In fact, researchers studying 36 years' worth of World Cup and Euro Cup finals found that the direction of penalty shots is basically a coin-flip.
儘管守門員們可能認為，這同樣適用於點球。事實上，通過對世界盃和歐洲盃決賽36年來的研究發現罰球的方向基本上跟拋硬幣的概率一樣。

Ah, but if kickers in the next World Cup were to take advantage of the goalie falling for the gambler's fallacy, they could really get a leg up. [gooooal]
— Karen Hopkin
呀，但如果下一屆世界盃罰球者們利用守門員的這一「賭徒謬論」的觀點，他們或許會佔上風。——凱倫‧霍普金