今日主題：HSBC: London v Hong Kong 匯豐銀行：倫敦VS香港
康康精選GRE&GMAT會考的主題，堅持每天精讀一定會進步的哦!!
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中英文稿：
HSBC: London v Hong Kong
匯豐銀行：倫敦VS香港
East is Eden
東方伊甸園
Banking's longest, and most successful, identity crisis
銀行業歷時最久，最為著名的身份認知危機
HSBC — one of the two most pivotal banks in the global financial system, according to regulators, alongside JPMorgan Chase — exudes permanence, Its buildings are guarded by lions cast in bronze which passers - by touch for luck, HSBC has never been bailed out, nationalised or bought, a claim no other mega - bank can make, It has not made a yearly loss since its foundation in 1865. While its peers took emergency loans from central banks in the crisis of 2008-10, HSBC, long on cash, supplied liquidity to the financial system,
在監管機構眼中，匯豐銀行與摩根大通並列是全球金融體系中的兩大中樞銀行，匯豐銀行的行業地位堅不可摧。青銅雄獅像守衛著匯豐的辦公大樓，路人經過時會撫 摸青銅像，沾點運氣。匯豐銀行從未需要獲取資金援助以擺脫困境，也不曾被收歸國有或被收購，這是其它大銀行所無法做到的。自1865年成立以來，匯豐銀行 就未曾有過年度虧損。在2008年至2010年的金融危機中，同行均向中央銀行申請緊急貸款，而現金充足的匯豐銀行則為整個金融體系提供了流動資產。
Yet behind that invincible aura lurks an insecurity: where is home? When Western and Indian merchants founded the bank in Asia in 1865, they considered basing it in Shanghai before settling on Hong Kong, Faced with wars, revolutions and the threat of nationalisation, the bank has chosen or been compelled to move its headquarters, or debated it, in 1941, 1946, 1981, 1986, 1990, 1993, 2008 and 2009.
然而，無敵光環背後卻潛藏著不安因素：何處是家？1865年，西方及印度商人在亞洲創立匯豐銀行，他們一開始是打算將總部設在上海的，後來才在香港紮根。 面對戰爭、革命及國有化浪潮的威脅，匯豐銀行曾在1941年、1946年、1981年、1986年、1990年、1993年、2008年及2009年選擇 搬遷或被迫搬遷總部地址，又或就此進行討論。
HSBC believes its itinerancy explains its survival, Countries and regimes come and go, The bank endures, Now it's decision time again, The results of a ten - month review of its domicile are likely to be announced on February 22 nd, The main choice is between staying in London — where HSBC shifted its holding company in 1990-93, in anticipation of the return of Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty in 1997— or going back to its place of birth,
匯豐相信，總部地址的巡迴變遷闡述了其生存之道。家和政權興衰變遷，匯豐銀行屹立不倒。如今又到了做決定的時候。在經過長達10個月的總部地址回顧歷程之 後，匯豐銀行很可能會於2月22日宣布其最終決定。最佳選址有兩個：要么是倫敦——匯豐銀行曾在1990年至1993年期間其母公司轉移至此，要么是回到 香港——1997年回歸，匯豐銀行最初成立的地方。
The decision is partly about technicalities: tax, regulation and other costs, But it also reflects big themes: London's status as a financial centre, the dominance of the dollar and Hong Kong's financial, legal and political autonomy from mainland China, which is supposedly protected until 2047 under the pledge of “ one country, two systems ”. HSBC's most recent move, from Hong Kong, was announced on the radio by China's premier of the day, Li Peng, Its return would be news too, a coup for China when its economic credibility is low, For Britain, the departure of its largest firm would be an embarrassment,
該決定部分涉及到技術性細則：稅收、監管及其他成本。但同時也反映了核心主旨：倫敦作為金融中心、美元的主導城市，而香港獨立於中國大陸擁有的金融、法律 和政治自治權。在“一國兩制”體系下，該自治權將得到合法保障，直至2047年為止。原國務院總理李鵬曾在廣播中宣布匯豐銀行搬離香港的最新舉措。同樣 地，它的回歸也會是一大新聞，這是中國在經濟信用低迷情況下的轉折。對英國人而言，其最大公司的離開，也將會是一件尷尬事兒。
That HSBC is considering moving at this moment may seem astonishing; it is knee - deep in a restructuring, Since taking the helm in 2011 Stuart Gulliver has reversed the empire - building that took place in the 2000 s to refocus the bank on financing trade, He has sold 78 businesses and almost halved the bank's exposure to America, Vast sums have been spent on compliance systems after the bank was fined for money - laundering in Mexico,
匯豐銀行此時考慮改址的舉動令人感到驚訝，因為它目前正深陷重組風波。歐智華自2011年開始掌控匯豐銀行以來，修正了匯豐銀行在21世紀初的金融帝國打 造途徑，以重新將重心轉回金融服務貿易。他已經出售了78項業務，並將對美業務規模收縮近50%。匯豐銀行在涉嫌墨西哥洗黑錢而被罰款事件發生後，已斥巨 資完善合規體系。
The group's return on equity hovers at 8-11%— poor by its standards but on a par with JPMorgan Chase, Outside Asia, returns are about 5%. To raise them, Mr Gulliver is inflicting a new dose of austerity, with big cuts at its investment bank, Retreat from the Western hemisphere has freed resources for Asia, where risk - weighted assets have soared by half since 2010.
匯豐銀行的淨資產收益率在8%~11%之間徘徊，並未達到其設定的標準，但與摩根大通水平相當。在亞洲地區之外，回報率均在5%左右。為了提高回報率，歐 智華先生正實行一系列緊縮措施，大力削減投行業務規模。匯豐銀行從西半球撤退，為在亞洲發展釋放了資源。自2010年以來，亞洲地區的風險加權資產已激增 了一半。
HSBC's seesawing skew towards Asia is one of four factors that explain its 151- year quandary over where it should be based, The others are the ethnicity of its managers, Britain's love - hate relationship with finance and the status of Hong Kong,
匯豐銀行總部應落地何處，這一難題困擾了151年之久。匯豐銀行對亞洲搖擺不定的態度是造成這一現象的四大原因之一，還有就是：管理層的種族、英國與金融之間愛恨交織的關係、還有香港的地位。
In the 1980 s all four pointed to London, The bank was diversifying into America and Europe ( by 2004 Asia yielded just a third of profits ). London felt natural to the cadre of expatriate Brits that ran it, Britain was welcoming, particularly after HSBC bought Midland, a local lender, And HSBC was cushioned from the danger that China would rip up the agreement over Hong Kong, “ As night follows day,.. we would become a Chinese bank,” the bank's chairman at the time said about keeping its domicile in the territory after 1997.
在20世紀八十年代，這些原因都直指倫敦。當時匯豐正向美國及歐洲拓展多樣化業務（到2004年為止，匯豐銀行在亞洲地區利潤僅佔全球利潤的三分之一）。 倫敦對於運行業務的英國僑民中的骨幹精英，感到天然親近。同時，英國也歡迎這一類人，尤其是在匯豐銀行收購當地的米特蘭銀行後。匯豐銀行也得以緩解中國有 可能撕毀就香港問題而起草的協議所帶來的衝擊。“當夜幕降臨，我們會成為一個屬於中國的銀行，”匯豐銀行主席當時，關於在1997年之後繼續將匯豐的總部 設定在此領土上如是說道。
Three of the four factors now point back towards Asia, Asia yields 60% of profits, This could rise to 75%. Mr Gulliver plans a big push in the Cantonese - speaking Pearl River delta, Rising interest rates would boost lending margins most in Asia, which has a surplus of deposits, which need not be repriced as quickly as debt, HSBC is far more Asian than its Western rivals ( see chart ). Not even a hard landing in China, a banking crisis there or a devaluation of the yuan would alter that,
四個因素中就有三個是指回亞洲的。亞洲的盈利額佔比60%，還可能繼續漲到75%。歐智華先生在珠三角粵語區製定了極大力度的推進計劃。提高利率將會促進 亞洲的借貸邊際，而亞洲的儲蓄過度，這些存款無需像債務一樣要很快地進行重新定價。與西方的一些競爭對手相比，匯豐銀行更加亞洲化（見圖表）。銀行危機或 者人民幣貶值都會改變這種狀況，更不用說是在中國硬著陸了。
HSBC's management is now multi - national, although its board has too few Asians on it, (Simon Robertson, its deputy chairman, is also a director of The Economist Group,) AIA, an insurance firm, moved to Hong Kong after it was spun out of American International Group in 2010. It shows it is possible to domicile a big finance firm there that is not Chinese - run,
儘管匯豐銀行的董事會中的亞洲成員很少，管理層也是由多國成員組成。（匯豐銀行副主席西蒙•羅伯遜兼任經濟學人集團理事一職。）自2010年被美國國際集團分拆之後，友邦保險公司就轉移到了香港。這表明大型金融公司不由中國人管理，也有在香港定址的可能性。
And Britain has got hostile, Briefly after the crisis public and elite opinion distinguished between the British banks that blew up and those that did not, Having a bank so plugged into emerging markets was seen as strategically helpful, But now HSBC (cumulative profits of $101 billion since 2007) is often lumped in with the likes of Royal Bank of Scotland (cumulative losses of $80 billion), a target of attacks from foaming parliamentary committees and a hatchet - wielding media, Critics worry that British depositors and taxpayers subsidise the bank by funding its foreign operations and implicitly guaranteeing its liabilities, This is the rationale behind Britain's levy on banks' global balance - sheets, which costs HSBC $1.5 billion a year, or about a tenth of profits, It also underpins the requirement that banks ring - fence their British retail arms, which will cost HSBC $2 billion,
而且英國也產生了敵意。在這次危機之後，大眾和精英階層將那些言過其實和名副其實的英國銀行進行了劃分。從戰略上看，一個銀行能夠在新興市場上立足是非常 有幫助的。但是現在匯豐銀行（自2007年以來累計收益為1010億美元）經常與蘇格蘭皇家銀行（累計虧損為800億美元）這類歸併同類，而蘇格蘭皇家銀 行則是那些誇誇其談的議會議員和唇槍舌劍的媒體攻擊的對象。批評者擔心那些英國的儲戶和納稅人會通過資助其海外行動或暗中擔保其負債以資助該行。這是英國 應對銀行全球資產負債表的理論基礎，為此匯豐銀行每年花費15億美元，相當於利潤的十分之一。這也支撐了銀行英國的銀行零售業務的專款需求，為此花費匯豐 20億美元。
Yet these policies duplicate others designed to tackle the same problem, including capital surcharges, stress tests, living wills and a push to “ bail in ” bondholders when disaster strikes, And they ignore HSBC's safety - first structure, It has more cash than it owes in debt (bonds and loans from other banks ). It is already run in self - reliant geographic silos, and 68% of its deposits are raised outside Britain, Arguably the subsidy flows in the other direction, from Asian savers who are providing cheap funds to Britain's financial system,
然而這些政策也只是複制其他用來解決同樣問題的策略，包括資本附加費、壓力測試、“生前遺囑”制度以及應對危機的自救性債券。而且這些政策也忽略了匯豐銀 行安全第一的體系。相對於負債，其擁有的資金更多（其他銀行的債券和貸款）。匯豐銀行已經在其自主的領域獨立運行，而且68%的存款來源於英國以外的地 區。然而對於從提供廉價基金的亞洲儲戶流入英國的金融體系補貼資金流向另外的方向，仍有所爭議。
George Osborne, Britain's chancellor, has belatedly turned on the charm, In July he tweaked the levy and the tax regime — although not by enough to make much difference to HSBC over the next five years, The financial watchdog has been shaken up, and Mark Carney, the boss of the Bank of England, which has ultimate responsibility for the banks, has hinted that they have enough capital,
英國財政大臣喬治•奧斯本最近小露一手，雖然遲了一點兒。七月份他稍微調整了征稅體系，儘管這樣的小動作不足以在五年內對匯豐造成足夠的影響。但金融監察體系已經得到整頓，而且對各銀行承擔最終責任的英格蘭銀行行長馬克•卡尼也暗示他們已經擁有足夠的資金。
But unless the government concedes that the size of HSBC's global balance - sheet is not a gauge of its risk to Britain, HSBC will worry that its size is capped, Asia will grow faster than Britain, and thus so will the bank's assets, If the bank is too big for Britain today, with assets equivalent to 89% of GDP, what will it look like in 2030? A British exit from the European Union would complicate things further, requiring HSBC to beef up operations in France or Germany (although it would have to do this whether based in London or Hong Kong).
但是除非政府認同匯豐的全球資產負債表的規模並非是衡量其帶給英國風險大小的標準，匯豐還是會擔心其規模達到上限。亞洲的發展速度將會超過英國，銀行的資 產也將是一樣。如果對於現在的英國來說，擁有相當於國民生產總值89%的資產的匯豐規模太大了，那麼到2030年又會是什麼樣呢？英國退出歐盟會使情況變 得更加複雜，這就要求匯豐銀行增強在法國或德國的運營（即使無論是定址於倫敦還是香港匯豐都需要這樣做）。
What about the fourth factor, Hong Kong? It has changed a lot since Mr Gulliver first lived there in the 1980 s, The skyscrapers of China's opaque lenders, Bank of China and ICBC, now loom over HSBC's building, beneath which pro - democracy protesters camped during the Occupy Central movement in 2012.
那麼第四個因素——香港呢？自歐智華先生於上世紀八十年代在香港定居時起，已經諸多變化。中國的不透明銀行、中國銀行和工商銀行的摩天大樓已經蓋過了匯豐銀行的建築——樓下也就是2012年要求民主的佔中運動抗議者安營扎寨的地方。
Hong Kong's government would welcome the bank back, as would its regulator, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). Moving to Hong Kong would probably cut HSBC's tax bill and capital requirements a bit and the degree of regulatory and political friction a lot, It might also help HSBC's ambitions on the mainland, although it already has a privileged spot there — the largest presence of any foreign bank, Like Hong Kong, HSBC wants to be close to China but not integrated with it, Head - to - head competition with the coddled mainland banks would be suicidal,
香港政府會向匯豐張開雙臂，香港金融管理局(HKMA)態度也是如此。遷址香港，匯豐得到的稅款減免和資本要求方面得到的好處不多，但面臨的監管和政治壓 力卻 比在英國小得多。同時，總部設在香港能幫助匯豐實現拓展大陸業務的雄心，儘管匯豐目前已經成為內地市場佔有率最大的外國銀行。和香港對大陸的態度一樣，匯 豐想要接軌內地市場，但不要融入其中。與受到萬千寵愛的內地銀行硬碰硬的競爭無異於自殺。
The logistics of a move would be less daunting than you might think, Half of HSBC's business already sits in a subsidiary in Hong Kong that the HKMA regulates, HSBC's shares are listed in Hong Kong as well as London,
遷址產生的變動不會過於令人生畏。匯豐本來就有一半的業務在香港分公司進行，接受HKMA的監管。匯豐的股票也同時在香港和倫敦兩地掛牌。
But how could the territory safely host a bank nine times as big as its GDP? Hong Kong officials say there are three lines of defence, First, they set more store than Britain on HSBC's innate strength: its culture, capital and vast pot of surplus cash, Second, they believe that in a crisis its geographical silos would get assistance from the local central bank: the Bank of England would help the British arm, the Federal Reserve the American one, and so on,
但是，香港如何安全接納相當於其GDP九倍的匯豐？香港官員回應稱，三道防線可做保障。第一，依靠匯豐的強大企業文化，資本和現金盈餘等自有實力，可在香 港設立更多銀行，超過英國本土數量；第二，他們相信，如果遭遇金融危機，匯豐各分部均能得到所在國家央行的救助，比如在英格蘭的銀行會出手援助英國分行， 美聯儲援助美國分行，以此類推。
Last, there are the HKMA's foreign reserves of $360 billion, They exist to protect the currency peg with the American dollar and “ the stability and integrity ” of its financial system, Were HSBC ever to cock up as badly as, say, Citigroup has, it might take $50 billion to re - capitalise it — within Hong Kong's capacity, A liquidity run so bad that it drained even HSBC's cash pile could be harder for the HKMA to manage, It runs a currency board so cannot print Hong Kong dollars in unlimited quantities, HSBC largely operates in American dollars, which the HKMA cannot create, and unlike the Bank of England, the HKMA does not have a dollar swap line from the Fed,
最後一道防線，是香港金融管理局的3600億美金外匯儲備。這項儲備能夠支持港幣與美元掛鉤的機制，以及保持香港金融系統的“完整與穩定”。如果匯豐面臨 危機（比如，陷入花旗一樣的境地），香港可以完全依靠自主能力，拿出500億美金為其註資。但極差的流動性甚至可能耗盡匯豐的現金儲備，這會讓HKMA更 加難以應對。香港採取貨幣發行局製度，港幣不能無限量發行量。匯豐大規模採取美元結算制度，而HKMA無權發行美元，和英格蘭銀行不同，HKMA沒有和美 聯儲達成貨幣互換額度。
Wrinkles like this mean that HSBC would ultimately rely on the unspoken backing of mainland China, with its vast financial resources, Speaking anonymously in August, a mainland official formerly in charge of financial matters said Chinese regulators would expect to have a say over HSBC, China desperately wants a global bank to represent its interests, Mainland officials might be tempted to meddle,
這些問題都意味著匯豐最終還需大陸方面的潛在支持，依靠後者大量強大財政資源。匿名人士在八月透露，一位之前掌控金融財政的內地官員說中國監管者希望在匯豐有話語權。中國迫切希望一家跨國銀行代表中國利益。大陸官員希望能插手匯豐的事務。
That might annoy American officials, who have become chauvinistic about access to their financial system since the 9/11 attacks and the 2007-08 crisis, HSBC manages about 10% of the world's cross - border dollar payments, Its ability to do so is essential to the bank's operations, In the event, say, of a military skirmish between America and China, it is not impossible there would be a backlash from Congress and New York's populist regulator against a “ Chinese ” bank having such a privileged role in the dollar system, In 2014 regulators briefly prevented BNP Paribas, a French bank, from clearing dollar transactions,
這可能會招緻美國方面的不滿，9/11恐怖襲擊事件和2007-08金融危機之後，美國官員開始帶有沙文主義色彩地嚴格管制美國的金融市場准入。匯豐銀行 處理世界10%的跨境美元結算，而美元結算資格對匯豐業務運營至關重要。假如，中美之間發生軍事摩擦，可能會引起美國國會和華爾街民粹主義監管者的激烈反 應，，抵制一家“中國”銀行在美元系統的特權地位。2014年法國巴黎銀行事件中，美國就直接取消了該銀行的美元交易能力。
A move to Hong Kong is thus a risk for HSBC, It is a bet that China will grow, but that its legal and financial systems will remain backward enough that Hong Kong will still have a vital role as the mainland's first - world entrepot, It is a bet that even as they meddle in Hong Kong's politics and on occasion break its laws, mainland officials will ultimately respect the principle of “ one country, two systems ”. It is a gamble that America will resist its worst urges, In Hong Kong HSBC would be a catastrophic mistake away from losing its independence — but then the bank has never made a catastrophic mistake, Viewed from an insular Britain, Hong Kong is dangerous and alluring, just as it was 151 years ago,
因此，匯豐遷址香港會面臨風險。匯豐需要賭一把—中國經濟將繼續增長，但其司法和金融系統依然落後，這樣香港就仍然能保持作為中國和發達國家交易的貿易中 轉站。還要賭一把，儘管中國政府仍然干涉香港政治，偶爾在法律上越線，但最終還是會遵照“一國兩制”政策。最後還得賭，美國抑制其最壞的衝動。總部設在香 港，匯豐若失去自主權，便會走上災難性的自毀之路；但匯豐從來沒犯過重大決策失誤。從孤立的英國角度來看，香港就像151年前一樣，充滿危險，卻讓人蠢蠢 欲動。
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