今日主題： The Ben Carson mirage 海市蜃樓般的Ben Carson
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中英文稿：
Lexington-- The Ben Carson mirage
萊辛頓--海市蜃樓般的Ben Carson
Why some Republicans think a charismatic brain surgeon can win the White House
為什麼一些共和黨人認為才華橫溢的腦科醫生能入主白宮
BETWEEN now and the presidential primary season, expect to hear more about Ben Carson. Though unknown to many Americans, the retired brain surgeon is a conservative pin-up. He was raised by a black single mother in Detroit, almost flunked out of school and nearly stabbed a teenage rival to death, before finding God, heading to Yale and becoming a paediatric neurosurgeon. He has written several books about his life—one became a TV film (Dr Carson was played by Cuba Gooding junior).
從現在到美國總統預選的日子裡，很期待聽說更多關於Ben Carson的消息。儘管對於很多美國人來說還很陌生，這位退休腦外科醫生是保守黨的招牌人物。Ben在底特律長大，母親是位單身黑人媽媽，在皈依基督之前，他快要被學校退學，有過前科，將一位青少年對頭幾乎刺死，後來去耶魯深造成了一名兒科神經外科醫生。Ben已經寫了好幾本關於他生活經歷的書—一本已被改變成電影（Carson醫生由小古巴•古丁扮演）。
Political celebrity came in 2013 when the doctor used a speech to a National Prayer Breakfast to lecture a stony-faced Barack Obama, sitting a few feet away, about the national debt, those who treat poverty as an excuse for failure and the “horrible” menace of political correctness. A Fox News TV contract followed, and many invitations to address conservative gatherings.
他的政壇名望來自2013年，當時他在全美祈禱早餐上致辭批評奧巴馬對於國債的無動於衷，以及那些將預算不足當作失敗的藉口、對政治前途有“可怕”威脅的人，當時奧巴馬坐在幾英尺開外。Fox新聞台以及很多邀約隨後都邀請Ben給保守黨聚會做演講。
Fans want to draft Dr Carson to run for the presidency in 2016. They call him a citizen-statesman for an anti-politics age. They praise his philanthropy (he runs a scholarship fund for star pupils in poor schools), and his appeal to churchgoing, socially conservative voters of all races. Their idol has said that he might run “if the Lord grabbed me by the collar and made me”. Some are willing to try more earthly interventions. According to official filings, the recently-formed National Draft Ben Carson for President Committee (slogan: “Run Ben Run!”) raised $1.2m dollars in the last two months of 2013. The committee, which operates without sanction from Dr Carson, boasts that it has raised another $1.6m since. The committee’s co-founder, Vernon Robinson, makes an unblushing, race-based pitch. Democrats have scooped about 90% of the black vote in presidential elections since 2000, helping to offset a consistent Republican lead among whites. In 2016, argues Mr Robinson, Dr Carson has only to take 17% of the black vote and “Hillary loses every swing state in the country”.
支持者們想提名Carson醫生競選2016年總統，稱他為反政治時代的平民政治家。他們頌揚他的慈善心（他設立了專為窮困小學優秀學生提供的獎學金），而且他呼籲人們去教堂，全種族的社會性投票。他們的偶像說如果上帝勒住他的領子、命令他，他可能會去參選。一些人則願意嘗試世俗性的干預。根據一些官方檔角料，2013年最後兩月，最近組建的全國性Ben Carson競選委員會（標語：“競選 Ben 奔起來！”）籌集到120萬美元。Carson醫生沒有認可這個委員會，而他們還吹噓道自那時起又籌集到160萬美元。創始人之一的Vernon Robinson還做了一個不要臉的、基於競選的促銷活動。民主黨人應經搶先奪取從2000年來總統選舉中的90%黑人選票，用於對抗民主黨一如既往的白人支持率。Robinson說2016年，Carson只奪了17%的黑人選票，就讓“希拉蕊輸掉了全國所有持觀望態度的州選票”。
At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a three-day shindig attracting big-name Republicans that ended on March 8th, Dr Carson was given a prominent speaking slot. He drew cheers with a talk that delivered partisan attacks (eg, Obamacare is a “massive” government power-grab) in a paediatrician’s mild tones (a favouriteCarsoninsult is to call foes “dummies”). CPAC attracts a young crowd with a libertarian bent: think students in blazers and bow-ties, and pamphlets headed “How to debate your teacher (and win!)”. Still,Carsonfans were excited when their man came third in a presidential straw poll of CPAC-goers, behind Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz but beating heavyweights such as Senator Marco Rubio, Governor Chris Christie and Representative Paul Ryan. It was a revealing moment, but not because Dr Carson can win the White House. To be clear, he will not even win the presidential nomination. His rise is interesting because of what it says about Republicans today.
3月8號結束的，連續舉辦三天，吸引眾多共和黨大人物保守黨政治活動會議（CPAC）上，Carson醫生成為重要的致辭者。他在宴會致辭時，以一個兒科專家的溫和音調，將黨派攻擊呈現出來（例如，奧巴馬醫改是“顯著的”政府權力濫用）（Carson最喜歡用的輕蔑語是稱對手為“傻瓜”）。CPAC吸引了愛好自由的年輕群體：他們認為學生是開拓者，宣傳冊上寫著“怎麼樣與老師辯論（而且是勝利！）”。Carson的支持者們還在為民調中他取得第三位好成績而興奮，僅次於Rand Paul議員和Ted Cruz，擊敗了重量級選手Marco Rubio議員，Chris Christie州長和Paul Ryan代表。這是有啟迪性的一刻，但不是因為Carson醫生能入主白宮。甚至，很明確的是，他將不會贏得總統提名。因為談論了共和黨人的事情，他的威望提升才變得有趣。
Republicans have flirted before with self-made men from outside politics. Remember Herman Cain, the pizza tycoon whose folksy manner and populist tax plans propelled him to giddy heights in 2011, before sex scandals dragged him down and out of the presidential primaries? Dr Carson is no Herman Cain. Before the 2012 election Republican activists looked at a string of odd-bods and firebrands, casting about for someone, anyone, who thrilled them more than their eventual nominee, Mitt Romney.
共和黨人層和政壇外部的成功人士接觸過。還記得Herman Cain，披薩巨頭，行事隨和，計畫推行平民稅收促使他在2011年排名讓人眼前一亮，後來性醜聞將他從競選圈內排除。Carson醫生不是Herman。2012年的選舉之前，共和黨活動者們聚焦了一串“臨時工”和“煽動者”，尋找一些人，任何人，能讓他們比推出最終提名者Mitt Romney更興奮。
This time Republicans seem more sober-minded. A bit unexpectedly, their current mood takes Lexington back to early 2004, and to (cold, snowy) memories of covering New Hampshire’s Democratic presidential primary. Back then it was fractious Democrats who were united by their loathing of the sitting president—seeing George W. Bush as not just wrong-headed but un-American and dangerous. Yet even as Democrats told themselves that they represented America’s true values, they were troubled by doubts about their ability to win overall majorities in a country that was stubbornly hostile to their arguments.
這次共和黨人看起來意識更加清醒。有點出乎意料的是，他們現在的心境將萊辛頓專欄帶回2004年初，（冰冷，大雪）那時是New Hampshire的民主黨總統預選。那時是不好對付的民主黨人聯合起來反對在位總統——因為小布希當時不僅僅是錯誤領導國家而且是反美國式、危險的領導。雖然當時民主黨人自稱他們代表美國的真正價值，但他們因質疑自身能力而陷入麻煩，質疑他們無法取得全國大多數選票以至於遭到評論的頑強抨擊。
Their first response was to blame their opponents and the media for sowing division and fear (just as Republicans do today). Their second response was to fret about their bench of White House contenders—a line-up of lightweights, shrill partisans and ponderous elder statesmen.
他們第一個回應就是指責對手和媒體散佈離間和恐怖（就像共和黨人今天做的）。第二個回應就是為他們的白宮之主競爭者而煩惱——那是一排小人物，打遊擊的，沉悶的老去的政治家。
Democrats sought a quick fix: candidates with sterling military records to reassure a nation at war. In the end that meant picking John Kerry, whose war service proved less helpful than hoped. But for a period, notably around New Hampshire’s primary, wild hopes were pinned on Wesley Clark, a retired four-star general with no political experience.
民主黨人尋求了快速法：選一批有純正軍方背景的候選人讓戰時國家安心。最後選了John Kerry，但是他的戰爭經歷沒有像預期那樣提供足夠幫助。但有一段時間，尤其是對於New Hamshire預選，狂熱的希望寄託在Wesley Clark的身上，他是一位沒有政壇經歷的退休四星上將。
The myth of the heroic outsider
圈外英雄傳奇
A decade on, Republicans seem equally unconvinced by their likely presidential contenders, and Dr Carson has the makings of a new Wesley Clark: a successful man, unready for the blowtorch scrutiny of politics. Some of his views might startle his party: for example, he favours stiff tariffs on manufactured imports. And he is already proving thin-skinned. At CPAC, he accused the press of distorting what he had meant when he called Obama care the worst thing to happen in America “since slavery”, or when he seemed to equate gay-marriage advocates with child-molesters.
十年的時間，共和黨人看起來同樣不信他們可能的總統競爭者，而且Carson醫生由成為新Wesley Clark的潛質：一個成功的人，還沒準備好迎接政治噴燈式審查。他的一些觀點可能讓黨派眼前一亮：例如他在製造業進口方面秦翔宇固定關稅政策。而且他已經被證實臉皮很薄。在CPAC，當他說奧巴馬醫改是從奴隸制度後發生在美國最糟糕的事，指責新聞界扭曲他的意思，或是當他將同性婚姻和猥褻兒童等同起來。
Republicans are bullish about November’s mid-term elections, when turnouts are usually low and the electorate skews whiter, older and more conservative. However, the more thoughtful know that the race for the White House in 2016 will be far harder. Swelling ranks of non-white and younger voters have never enjoyed the American dream of rising living standards. Their pessimism poses a test for Republicans whose creed is that hard work leads to success, if government will only get out of the way. Alas, too many conservatives—like Democrats in 2004—are too blinded by dislike of the president to grasp the limits of their own popularity. Hence their desire for quick fixes, as represented by folk like Dr Carson. But quick fixes seldom work.
工很當人對於11月中期選舉鬥志昂揚，選區裡有更多白人、老人、保守派時，結果同城都會很不樂觀。然而，對於2016年白宮選舉考慮得越多、越全面，事情就會更困難。非白人、更年輕化的階級膨脹起來，他們從未享受到提高生活標準的美國夢。他們的悲觀主義會是共和黨人的一道測試，因為他們宣揚如果政府不干預，努力工作就能通向成功。哎！更多的保守派——像2004年的民主黨人——被總統的反感蒙蔽了雙眼，控制他們支持者的底線。因此他們更喜歡快刀斬亂麻，如同Carson醫生這樣的代表。但是欲速則不達。
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